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Title: Unanticipated land-use changes from market response to conservation interventions in the tropics
Author: Lim, Felix
ISNI:       0000 0004 8509 3698
Awarding Body: University of Sheffield
Current Institution: University of Sheffield
Date of Award: 2020
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Commercial agriculture is the main driver of global forest and biodiversity loss. While research and policies focus on implementing sustainable, cost-efficient agricultural practices to reduce deforestation rates whilst meeting rising global food demands, they often overlook market responses and indirect impacts on land-use change. As forest loss for agriculture is primarily market-driven, not accounting for these market responses could lead to grossly underestimating the extent of forest and biodiversity impacts. This thesis focuses on the unanticipated land-use changes from market responses to our conservation interventions. By integrating theoretical economic concepts with spatial land-use models, I investigated how perverse market outcomes arise from common conservation interventions and policies. I first developed a framework describing the economic underpinnings of unintended consequences via market responses to our conservation efforts. Following this, I further explored market responses to land-use changes and conservation efforts, focusing on oil palm agriculture across Indonesia. I developed a model that explains and predicts oil palm expansion and deforestation across Indonesia, in relation to crop prices, production costs and profitability. Using this model, I constructed a partial-equilibrium model characterising market dynamics, and, finally, evaluated the unanticipated land-use impacts of projected crop expansion, under various land-management and conservation scenarios, on forests and biodiversity. A land-rent approach provided more realistic assessments of land-use change oil palm spread compared to just using crop suitability. Equilibria analyses from this model highlighted the sensitivity of supply relationships to changes in agricultural practices: changes in yield resulted in resulted in sizeable shifts in supply and market equilibria. Importantly, from the crop-expansion model, agricultural intensification increases the likelihood of further expansion into forests. Land-use policies in place offer little protection to remaining forests, given minimal overlap with areas vulnerable to oil palm expansion. This study emphasises the potential risks conservation efforts being undermined by market feedbacks; it is imperative we account for these potential market-driven responses and develop more effective conservation decisions with minimal counteractive feedbacks.
Supervisor: Edwards, D. P. ; McHardy, Jolian Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available