Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS: https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.793858
Title: The impact of external shocks on Nigeria's GDP performance within the context of the global financial crisis
Author: Akpan, Nkereuwem I.
ISNI:       0000 0004 8497 5664
Awarding Body: University of Bradford
Current Institution: University of Bradford
Date of Award: 2018
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Abstract:
This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria's output performance for the period 1981 - 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria's output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria's output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some viable information in explaining the variabilities in Nigeria's output performance over the horizon. The comparison between the results of the VECM and the unrestricted VAR shows that the unrestricted VAR model outperformed the VECM. The overall result of the study confirms the view about the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to external shocks. These shocks explain more than half of the variance in real output performance and have varying effects on output performance in Nigeria. The dynamic response of output performance to each of the defined shock variables show that output performance responds rapidly to the shock variables, while its response to the domestic economic variables is seemingly moderate. Finally, the variance decomposition show that international crude oil price and terms of trade have the largest share in accounting for the variability in output performance, followed closely by the shares of capital inflows and monetary policy.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID: uk.bl.ethos.793858  DOI: Not available
Keywords: External shocks ; Global financial crisis ; Business cycles ; Vector autoregression ; Impulse response function ; Innovations ; Variance decomposition ; Function ; Vector error correction ; Nigeria
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