Title:
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Assessing nuclear security in the 21st century : the case of Europe
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This analysis has two related goals. The first is to develop and employ a theoretical framework which can be applied in a regional context to produce a comprehensive overview of the condition of nuclear security. The second is to utilise this model to provide a portrayal of the contemporary condition of nuclear security in Europe. By applying this Regional Nuclear Security (RNS) Model to the case study, it is demonstrated that the overall condition of RNS in Europe can be categorised as 'Stable'. This is the second most preferable of four possible conditions (In descending order: 'Optimal', 'Stable', 'Unstable' and 'Critical'). This is found to be the case because two of the three variables which determine the state of RNS according to the model are deemed to contribute in a beneficial manner. The influence of these variables ('Polarity Environment', 'Geopolitical Conditions' and 'Deterrence Requirements') is determined by examining all of the factors relating to nuclear security within a region which affects them. This examination is achieved by employing a deep thematic-analysis informed by the Realist theoretical paradigm. As a supplementary research aim, the study also attempts to generate insights into how the condition of RNS in Europe may develop by identifying the possible trajectories of patterns and trends uncovered during the analysis of regional characteristics, employing a methodological framework similar to two comparable studies.
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