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Title: Perspectives of the assessments of the feasibility of monetary integration of the West African monetary zone countries
Author: Mogaji, Peter Kehinde
ISNI:       0000 0004 7960 6282
Awarding Body: SOAS University of London
Current Institution: SOAS, University of London
Date of Award: 2018
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From the perspectives of optimum currency area theory, money and monetary policies, exchange rates determination and exchange market behaviours, this thesis evaluated the feasibility of monetary cooperation in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) through the assessments of the homogeneity of macroeconomic performances and patterns of economic dynamics, business cycles, production structures, factor market flexibilities, financial systems convergence, openness to trade and investments, inflation convergences, money neutrality, monetary-fiscal dominance, monetary reactions, loss of monetary independence, suitability of the future common monetary policy for prospective members, homogeneity of the exchange rate fundamental determinants, currency crisis vulnerability and exchange market pressures. Employing annual, quarterly and monthly macroeconomic and financial data of the WAMZ countries (The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone), generally spanning over a 36-year period between 1980 and 2015 on the average, the thesis applied various statistical and econometric estimation methods of canonical cointegrating regression, dynamic ordinary square regressions, fully modified ordinary least square regressions, autoregressive distributed lag bound tests, Markov regime switching regressions, ordinary least square regressions, quantile regressions, robust ordinary least square regressions and the generalised autogressive conditional heteroscasticity modelling to gather evidences and draw relevant and useful inferences. Although, there were indications that the zone is not currency crisis vulnerable while monetary dominance was established and money was uniformly neutral and superneutral, there were evidence that the prospective members of the WAMZ generally failed some uniformity and convergence tests of macroeconomic fundamentals and monetary reactions. Some stylised facts and theoretical propositions as well as decisive international parity conditions failed to hold across the WAMZ. Crucial monetary policy tests pointed to the possibility of high degree of influence and domination of the future monetary union by Nigeria, which possesses close to 90% of the economic size of the entire zone. This, with its associated political implications may likely draw back the feasibility of monetary integration of the WAMZ. Further evaluation of the initial design of the European Monetary Union identified design flaws from which lessons were drawn for the African monetary integration initiatives.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral