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Title: Essays on credit, asset prices and macro-prudential policy
Author: Buchanan-Hodgman, Luke
ISNI:       0000 0004 7427 8363
Awarding Body: University of Kent
Current Institution: University of Kent
Date of Award: 2017
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Chapter one of this thesis examines the behaviour of credit volumes, asset prices and output for US data using a dummy-augmented vector autoregression model. The paper contributes to the literature in three ways. Firstly, statistical analysis indicates that from 1985 onward house prices exhibit phase-shift in leading output. Over the same period, data shows that household credit becomes noticeably less volatile relative to output, whereas fluctuations in business debt become more pronounced. Secondly, Granger-Causality tests show that there is significant feedback between house prices and household credit. This result was robust to periods of high and low household debt service costs. Interestingly, changes in interest rates are shown to Granger-Cause changes in house prices and credit volumes only during periods when debt service costs are above the long-run average rate. And third, the magnitude of the responses of credit and asset price variables to variety of shocks are sensitive to whether debt service costs are higher or lower than average. Specifically, when financial obligations are high a shock to the residual in the interest rate equation produces an amplified response in credit and asset price variables. Chapter two constructs a New-Keynesian DSGE model with multiple credit constrained agents in order to examine whether expectational shocks to the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio can create cyclical behaviour in output and house prices. The contributions of this paper are threefold. Firstly, when agents anticipate a future loosening of the LTV ratio and this expectation turns out to have been incorrect, house prices, consumption, investment and output all suffer a sharp decline. Secondly, the paper shows that in order to generate downward comovement of output and house prices in response to a frustrated expectational shock to the LTV ratio, agents must be able to post a substantial quantity of the total value of their housing asset as collateral. And thirdly, the ability to post capital as well housing as collateral significantly amplifies the cumulative loss of both output and house prices in the face of a frustrated expectational shock to the LTV ratio. Chapter three examines the efficacy of two types of macro-prudential policy in an es timated DSGE model with a banking sector. Both in the case of counter-cyclical capital requirements (CCR) and a lean-against-the-wind (LATW) type Taylor Rule, policy is an chored to house price growth. Using a conventional central bank loss function as the metric to gauge the efficacy of macro-prudential policy, the model indicates a reduction in the vari ation of output of up to 7.38% in the case of a technology shock, and 22.14% in the case of a monetary policy shock when the CCR is the instrument of choice. However, policy in this form exacerbates fluctuations in inflation in the case of technology shock in the region of 4.99%. If the source of the shock is through housing preference, loan-to-value or bank capital, policy in this form unambiguously increases the variance of both output and infla tion. If policy takes the form of LATW, the output-inflation trade-off is more pronounced in the case of a technology shock. The improvements in reducing the variance of output and inflation are lessened when LATW is active rather than CCR for a monetary policy shock. The model indicates that any improvement in stabilising output and inflation is significantly offset by a pronounced increase in the variance of credit growth when policy is in the form of CCR.
Supervisor: Otsu, Keisuke Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available