Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS: | https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.754171 |
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Title: | Refining Value-at-Risk estimates : an extreme value theory approach | ||||||
Author: | Sampid, Marius Galabe |
ISNI:
0000 0004 7427 2295
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Awarding Body: | University of Essex | ||||||
Current Institution: | University of Essex | ||||||
Date of Award: | 2018 | ||||||
Availability of Full Text: |
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Abstract: | |||||||
This thesis proposes new approaches to Value-at-Risk estimation using (1) Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation volatility model with skewed Student’s-t distributions, (2) Bayesian GARCH model with Student’s-t distribution, and (3) Bayesian Markov-Switching GJR-GARCH model with skewed Student’s-t distributions, incorporating copula functions and extreme value theory. A new approach for selecting a proper threshold in the Peaks Over Threshold method for extreme value theory analysis called the hybrid method is also proposed. The proposed Value-at-Risk models are compared to the traditional Value-at-Risk models commonly used by banks. Back-testing results following Kupiec (1995) unconditional coverage test, Christoffersen (1998) independent and conditional coverage test, Basel traffic light test, Santos and Alves (2012) new independent test, Dowd (2002) bootstrap back-test, and Engle and Manganelli (2004) Dynamic Quantile test show that Value-at-Risk models constructed following extreme value theory produced reliable Value-at-Risk estimates. Furthermore, Value-at-Risk models incorporating the hybrid method for threshold selection produced more stable Value-at-Risk estimates compared to the traditional Value-at-Risk models.
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Supervisor: | Not available | Sponsor: | Not available | ||||
Qualification Name: | Thesis (Ph.D.) | Qualification Level: | Doctoral | ||||
EThOS ID: | uk.bl.ethos.754171 | DOI: | Not available | ||||
Keywords: | QA Mathematics | ||||||
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