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Title: International trade and tourism in a CO2-constrained world
Author: Krammer, Philip
ISNI:       0000 0004 7229 1986
Awarding Body: UCL (University College London)
Current Institution: University College London (University of London)
Date of Award: 2018
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The introduction of market-based measures to combat CO2 emissions from international transport will affect countries with a higher dependence on international trade and tourism to a greater extent than those relying more on domestic markets. This thesis quantifies the resulting changes in real income in the trade and tourism sector in 123 countries. It consists of three main parts. The first part explores the relative price changes of operational mitigation strategies in ocean freight versus air freight, based upon a logit model that is embedded into a trade model with homogeneous firms. Results indicate that the slow steaming of ships could reduce CO2 emissions from international trade by a significant amount (50%) and with only little impacts on welfare (-0.6%). The second part derives—in the absence of dedicated theoretical frameworks—a gravity model of international tourism. Estimating the demand model yields a price elasticity of four, which is similar to estimates in international trade. Unlike in trade however, the calculated welfare gains vary widely across countries and can be as high as 54% for small island developing states (SIDS). The third part combines the tourism model and a simplified version of the trade model into a multi-sector, multi-country general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact of a global bunker fuel levy in the international air and maritime transport industry. The resulting economic cost of reducing one tonne of CO2 in both industries corresponds to approximately $400 in global value added. A carbon price of $150/tCO2 could raise all of the $100 billion of global climate finance needed, while 318 Mt of transport related CO2 could be abated cost-effectively each year. This scheme would result into a nonrecurring drop in gross world product of 0.13% and, except for SIDS and landlocked countries, be non-discriminatory against developing countries.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available