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Title: Measuring the long term sexual recidivism risk of convicted sex offenders in England & Wales and Norway
Author: Hargreaves , Claire
ISNI:       0000 0004 6498 6294
Awarding Body: Lancaster University
Current Institution: Lancaster University
Date of Award: 2015
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Currently, there is little empirical evidence to suggest a length of time at which a sexual offender is at risk of sexual recidivism. Through survival analysis techniques I investigate whether it is possible to identify when juvenile and young adult sexual offenders can be considered low risk in terms of sexual recidivism, which in this study, is judged to be the point when such a risk becomes as low as their respective juvenile and young adult never-convicted population receiving their first conviction for a sexual offence. I examine male juvenile and young adult samples born in seven birth cohorts from the Offenders index, which contains the criminal histories of convicted offenders in England and Wales from 1963 to 2008. Furthermore, I establish how sex offenders' risk of sexual recidivism compares to other recidivism types {violent recidivism and all recidivism) and compare such risks to that of three types of offenders, violent offenders, burglary offenders, and all offenders. In addition, I determine whether criminal history, demographic and socio-demographic variables encourage or prohibit sex offenders' risk, of a sexual reconviction through a Cox proportional hazard analysis and discrete time hazard analysis with complementary fog-log link. Socio-demographic variables are not obtainable from the Offenders Index. As a result, I have obtained access to Norway's population based registers allowing the analysis of static and dynamic socio¬demographic risk factors. Although there are difficulties in comparing crime data across countries, studying the results from the analyses conducted on the Norwegian samples will help elucidate the risk of sexual offending recidivism in England & Wales. From the analyses, in terms of sexually reoffending juvenile sex offenders from England & Wales were found to become a similar risk to their respective never- convicted population at age 38 - 17 years following their 21st birthday - and young JW adult sex offenders at age 40 - 14 years following their 26* birthday. Juvenile and young-adult sex offenders' risk of violent recidivism and all recidivism were found to become similar to the risk of their respective never-convicted population at a younger age than that found of sexual recidivism. Juvenile violent, burglary and all offenders' risk of sexual recidivism was considered low 10, 15 and 17 years following age 21 respectively. Young adult violent and all offenders, on the other hand were found to become a similar risk to the juvenile never-convicted population 5, 13 and 6 years following age 26 respectively. The sexual recidivism risk of the juvenile and young adult sex offenders convicted in Norway were also found to become a similar risk to their respective never-convicted population being convicted of a sexual crime at a comparable age to those of England & Wales; mid-thirties to early forties. Using the Norwegian data individual's status of employment was the; only factor found to significantly affect juvenile and young adult sex offenders' risk of sexual recidivism. Several variables were, however, found to significantly, affect such offenders' risk of violent recidivism including birth cohort, conviction of a violent offence and income. Interestingly, income was also found to significantly affect the sexual recidivism risk of both juvenile and young adult violent offenders and young adult burglary offenders. Surprisingly, the risk of the juvenile and young adult never-convicted population being convicted of a sexual crime was likewise found to be affected by income in addition to several socio-demographic variables including education, number of children and marital status. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available