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Title: Household and skill disaggregation in multi-sectoral models of the Scottish economy
Author: Ross, Andrew G.
ISNI:       0000 0004 6061 4338
Awarding Body: University of Strathclyde
Current Institution: University of Strathclyde
Date of Award: 2017
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This thesis constructs and applies multi-sectoral models that can be used by policy makers to assess potential system-wide impacts and trade-offs of policies set out in Scotland’s Economic Strategywith particular focus on analysing the skill-dimension. This thesis begins by building a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Scotland and then disaggregates this by educational characteristics of the Scottish workforce. This forms the foundation upon which subsequent modelling frameworks are developed. Next, the SAM is used to compare methods for calculating Input-Output Type II multipliers. Significant differences across these methods do not appear to be explicitly acknowledged or understood in the current literature. The potential distributional effects of exogenous demand shocks within the Scottish economy are analysed using a SAM model that contains disaggregated household accounts and two types of labour. The SAM is also used to identify the skill intensity of key structural component of the Scottish economy. The SAM is then applied to calibrate an extended version of the AMOS Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model. This model is subsequently employed to analyse the system-wide impacts of policy relevant shocks. A variety of export demand shocks are modelled to identify the likely impacts of export orientated policies. This facilitates the separate identification of disparate labour market impacts, whilst also detailing policy relevant system-wide effects in a multi sectoral modelling framework. The skill intensity of exports, as also assessed in the SAM model, is revisited in a CGE modelling context. A key policy in the Economic Strategy is ‘to make better use of skills in the workplace’. This is interpreted as a labour augmenting efficiency improvement where fewer workers are required to produce the same level of output. Given the importance of the skill dimension alternative cases of labour-augmenting efficiency improvements are explored within the skill-disaggregated AMOS model.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral