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Title: A complexity evolutionary theory for the emergence of financial and economic crises : synchronising Gould and Minsky through von Neumann and Mandelbrot
Author: Viegas, Eduardo
ISNI:       0000 0004 6061 7053
Awarding Body: Imperial College London
Current Institution: Imperial College London
Date of Award: 2017
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A theoretical complexity framework to analyse the fundamental business dynamics of financial markets and economies is developed through coherently coupling selected aspects of Gould's evolutionary theory concepts to the essence of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. This framework is grounded, or articulated in quantitative terms, through mathematical methods inspired at its core by von Neumann's automata theory, and by Maldenbrot's fractal geometry. By consistently applying such framework to the analysis of the emerging features within the financial markets and economies through a range of different and diverse datasets, markets, business dynamics and research problems, an embryonic Complexity Evolutionary Theory on Financial and Economic Crises ('CETFEC') is developed. CETFEC characterises financial markets and economies as complex systems, whereby the emergence of financial crises is regarded as the natural consequence of fundamental evolutionary processes that lead relevant agents to adapt to different environmental conditions. As a result, the theory has a marked distinction that it does not pre-define, categorise or exercise a level of judgement about the behaviour of the agents within the system. CETFEC aims to identify the signals that lead the existence of the necessary conditions for the emergence of crises, rather than trying to predict the timing of crises. As a result, the nature of shocks may be either or both, endogenous and exogenous. Fundamentally it holds that the understanding of the distribution and the diversity of the agents provide essential signals to the resilience of the system.
Supervisor: Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral