Title:
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Constraints on the geometry of the Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation
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Uncertainty over future sea level rise is of great concern to society. One useful
analogue for future sea levels is the Last Interglaciation (~130-118ka), when
global sea level was around 6m higher than present. While most of the expected
components to this are well simulated, the magnitude and location of the
Antarctic contribution is poorly understood. Here, I perform a variety of ice sheet
sensitivity tests to determine constraints on the extent/geometry of the
Antarctic ice sheet during the Last Interglaciation in comparison with Antarctic
ice core δ180 data and far-field relative sea level data, raised beaches and fossil
corals from Patagonia and Australia.
The effect of changes in solid earth deformation at ice core sites are simulated
using a glacial isostatic adjustment model, and show minimal impact from
plausible ice sheet collapses at any considered data sites, and that the ongoing
deglacial uplift effects are likely to form a significant component of solid earth
elevation around the Ross and Weddell Seas.
I use the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, HadeM3, to simulate 2kyr
snapshot runs for each ice sheet scenario (132-118ka). Precipitation seasonality
is very poorly simulated over inland East Antarctica. Modelled changes in
temperature between LIG and preindustrial show most similarity to ice core 8180
data when changes in precipitation seasonality are not accounted for. In the
event of collapse of any of the marine based West Antarctic, Wilkes, and Aurora
basins, cyclonic conditions would dramatically alter local climate, which is not
observed in any data, indicating the ice sheet to be in similar to present
geometry.
Finally, I investigate the effect of glacial-isostasy on the nearest far-field relative
sea level data, from Patagonia and Australia. Australian data suggests that there
would have to be continual gradual sea level input throughout the
Interglaciation. Although a unique fingerprint of West Antarctic collapse might
be seen in Patagonian data, uncertain tectonic uplift and deglaciation history
means this would be practically impossible to determine. Overall, I am able to
determine that the Wilkes or Aurora subglacial basins did not significantly
retreat. There remains no data suggesting a West Antarctic collapse in the Last
Interglaciation, although the magnitude of global sea level strongly implies some
Antarctic contribution.
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