Title:
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The dynamics of pensions and social care services for older people in the welfare state
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This study explores the dynamics of changes in pensions and social care services for
older people (hereafter, SCSFO), and their variation in OECD countries in the last
three decades of the twentieth century. There are two main research questions: 1.
how have both pension and SCSFO changed amongst OECD countries since the
1980s? 2. How have OECD countries' pensions and SCSFO been reconstructed in
terms of socio-economic, political and institutional theory?
This thesis uses macro-comparative analysis on SCSFO and pension policies, as
SCSFO is gaining significance within the changes in old-age policies in postindustrial
society. To understand welfare state policies, on which social expenditure
continues to grow, it is necessary to understand the evolution of SCSFO.
On the grounds of conceptual classification of pensions and SCSFO, a variety of
indicators were included in the analyses to reflect the concept of a pension properly.
Also, this research built a database including indictors of SCSFO and data on longterm
care. These were extracted from SOCX (2012) and SHA (2011) respectively. By
utilising such data, this thesis addresses the trends in pension and SCSFO polices of
18 OECD states from 1980 to 2006, and the factors that affect changes in spending
levels and structure.
The factors and independent variables affecting spending on pensions and SCSFO
are studied using panel analysis. The relationship between those factors was
confirmed by path analysis. Also, in order to compare the rate of increase in pension
and SCSFO spending, panel logit analysis has been conducted using binary
dependent variables.
This thesis finds that the determinants of pensions are different from those of SCSFO
among OECD countries. Pension and SCSFO spending drivers are categorised into
socio-economic effects, politics, and institutions, and 15 hypotheses are set out for
panel analysis. As a result, new factors in SCSFO (including social demand following
de-industrialization, gender politics and local taxes), appear to be highly
significant. This has implications for three existing theories behind SCSFO: a new
social risk factor, feminization, and localization. In panellogit analysis, the structural
changes in pension and SCSFO I spending are empirically analyzed. The new
structure of socio-economic effects, politics, and institutions is found to have
contributed to the reorganization of the structure of social spending. Lastly, this
thesis offers an empirical analysis using path analysis to ascertain the dependent and
independent variables that are configured in each structure. In other words, the
structure of the variables has been investigated to see whether they are statistically
significant. The analyses show that the variables have a certain degree of connection
with one another.
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