Title:
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A diagnostic framework for the evaluation of multiple hydrological model structures from a UK national assessment of discharge uncertainties
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Hydrological modelling is an inexact science where we have incomplete knowledge and
understanding of hydrological systems. This has important implications for how we evaluate
and discriminate between competing hypotheses of hydrological behaviour as model
evaluation is tempered by the information, uncertainty and error within the available data
used for model evaluation. This thesis presents multiple studies that investigate the different
choices that matter for hydrological model evaluation by developing a diagnostic framework
for the evaluation of multiple hydrological model structures that incorporates a UK national
assessment of discharge uncertainties. There is a particular emphasis on (l) testing multiple
hypotheses of catchment behaviour, (2) developing novel frameworks to quantify the quality
of river discharge data and (3) accounting for observational discharge uncertainties in model
diagnostics. The first results chapter provides evidence that the value of diagnostics to
discriminate between model structures is dependent on catchment characteristics.
Furthermore, these results contribute to a better understanding of the links between model
structure choice, model performance and catchment characteristics and dynamics. The
second results chapter focuses on the development of a novel generalised framework to
estimate discharge uncertainties at many gauging stations with a variety of different errors in
the stage-discharge relationship. Significantly, it was shown that despite regional differences
in the type of gauging station, the number of historical rating curves and stage-discharge
measurements, discharge uncertainties are highly place specific. The third results chapter
emphasises the importance of recognising data quality in model evaluation frameworks and
demonstrates that the choice of discharge uncertainty estimate impacts model identification.
Overall, this thesis presents results that are important for the development of model
evaluation frameworks and provides guidance to the hydrological community on how to test
and reject competing hypotheses of catchment behaviour.
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