Title:
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The reliability of degrading structural systems operating at high temperature
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EDF Energy own and operate seven Advanced Gas cooled Reactor (AGR) nuclear power
plants which are the only commercially operated high temperature nuclear reactors in
the world. Being high temperature means that considerable numbers of components
operate within the creep regime and as a result, creep-fatigue is a life limiting
degradation mechanism for many reactor components.
Nuclear safety is the overriding priority for the operator, EDF Energy. Therefore
demonstrating the integrity of structural components is an important activity. This poses
the greatest challenge for components within the reactor pressure vessel, such as boilers,
insulation and support structures, because they can not be easily inspected or repaired
due to accessibility. Therefore there is reliance upon theoretical structural integrity
assessments to demonstrate components are safe to operate, using procedures such as
the RS assessment procedure.
This research reviews the requirements placed upon high temperature structural
integrity assessments and the current solutions provided by the deterministic
assessment procedures, using a systems engineering approach. This identified clear
disparities, including: deterministic structural integrity output versus a probabilistic
safety requirement; lack of communication about the extent and nature of uncertainty in
deterministic assessment results; plant observations (survival, failure and inspections)
cannot be reconciled with deterministic assessment results; deterministic assessments
consider components in isolation and do not consider the functionality of a structural
system. These disparities are of growing concern when considering the aged AGR plants,
as component failures become more likely and lifetime extensions are sought.
To address these disparities, a physics-of-failure reliability framework has been
proposed as a solution for creep-fatigue assessments. An important aspect of this
paradigm shift, from deterministic to probabilistic assessments, was in the management
of uncertainty. Two classifications of uncertainty were defined to do this; aleatory
uncertainty which is caused by variation within a structural system and epistemic
uncertainty which arises from a lack of understanding about the structural system. These
two definitions can be applied to all variables and uncertainties allowing them to be
managed appropriately within the structural integrity reliability framework.
Uncertainties which are involved in a structural integrity analysis, including material
properties, operating conditions and geometric properties were explored, classified and
quantified where possible. The use of plant data, including survival and failure data and
inspection data was also considered within the reliability framework.
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