Title:
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Structural adjustment in Mexico : social and economic impacts
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This dissertation analyses the period of Structural Adjustment in Mexico from
1986 to 1999. This includes the liberalisation of the incentive system and the
restoration of investment. The research work presented here looks at the
effect of an aspect of structural adjustment policy - trade reform -on labour
market outcomes at the household level, in Mexico, by considering a large
number of observations (household members), from a number of cities, over a
period of thirteen years. It examines whether Mexico should have used
alternative policies in order to improve the economic and social conditions of
the poor.
The main questions explored by this dissertation are: What has been the
impact of adjustment on Mexican macroeconomic indicators directly related to
poverty? Were migration and remittances affected by the adjustment process?
The specific research questions are: 1. How did the effects of economic
reform on wage and employment vary with age and gender in the short and
medium term? Did this relationship change over time? 2. Did structural
adjustment and trade liberalisation harm or help the poor? 3. Did the reforms
help the poor indirectly through their positive effect on economic growth? 4.
What were the effects of macroeconomic policy on aggregate measures of
welfare - average wage, proportion of individuals unemployed? 5. What
happened to migration and remittances during the analysed period?
There are three separate analyses. The first two use repeated cross-sectional
models to determine the effects of policy, economic conditions and household
characteristics on wages, the probability of being unemployed and employed
in the informal sector, as well as the probability of being poor. It is important to
mention that this study refers mainly to the urban population. It is the use of
household characteristics as control variables in the determination of welfare
that distinguishes the models here from the macroeconomic models
commonly used. For comparison, a third analysis uses a traditional time
series model to measure the effects of policy and economic conditions on
aggregate measures of welfare.
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