Title:
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Split sovereign credit ratings : the causes and implications for the financial markets
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This thesis addresses two original research questions on split sovereign credit ratings. First,
what factors drive split sovereign ratings? Second, how do split sovereign ratings influence
the information content of sovereign rating events for the bond and stock markets? A rich
daily dataset from 1997-2013 for 86 countries and three global credit rating agencies (CRAs)
is utilised.
Split sovereign credit ratings are determined by two elements: the differences in the
CRAs’ credit rating methodologies and the sovereign information transparency. Judgements
of political risk divide the CRAs’ opinions more than economic fundamentals. Split ratings
are induced by increases in political risk and Fitch’s ratings are most negatively impacted by
this. Information transparency enhances the quality of ratings, leading to higher ratings by
Moody’s versus S&P and Fitch. Opacity results in disagreements between Fitch and S&P,
S&P having the tendency to assign lower ratings. On the other hand, government
transparency reduces the division between them.
Pre-event differences of opinion between S&P and Moody’s determine the extent to
which bond spreads react to rating actions. Sovereign bond investors are more pessimistic
about downgrades by S&P on the inferior ratings (lower ratings by S&P versus Moody’s
immediately pre-event) than on the superior ratings (higher ratings by S&P versus Moody’s
immediately pre-event). Upgrades by Moody’s have a positive market impact if the upgrades
affect the superior ratings (higher ratings by Moody’s versus S&P). For the stock market, the
differences of opinions between all three CRAs influence stock price reactions. Stock
markets demonstrate similar asymmetric reactions to those reported for bond markets.
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