Title:
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Understanding spatial and temporal heterogeneity and context in the social sciences, using panel data
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In this thesis I consider a number of methodological innovations that allow
context and heterogeneity to be statistically modelled when using temporal data
in the social sciences. It is argued first that multilevel models are to be preferred
to 'fixed effects' (FE) models, because of the formers' ability to explicitly model
heterogeneity; the supposed downsides of FE models are easily solvable within
the random effects framework, through the explication of 'within' and 'between'
individual effects. Second, I consider the age-period-cohort (APC) identification
problem, showing that one supposed solution, the Hierarchical APe model, is
flawed. An adaption of that multilevel model is suggested, but this requires
certain assumptions to be made, such as that there are no period trends. This
model can also be extended to incorporate other spatial contexts, and to include
within and between effects.
These methodological recommendations are illustrated with a number of
empirical examples, which bring into question current understandings of
substantive debates across the social sciences. I show that the relationship
between growth and debt varies greatly between countries, and in general
operates in the direction from growth to debt and not vice-versa as suggested by
many in the literature. Second, I show that the effect of democracy on
globalisation is also somewhat variable, and that the average effect is not
statistically significant. Third, I show that mental wellbeing worsens throughout
the life course, and does not form a U-shape as previously suggested by others.
That all of these findings directly contradict current knowledge in a number of
areas shows the importance of the methodological arguments made, and the
importance of accounting for and measuring heterogeneity in a realistically
complex way.
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