Title:
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A systems approach to smart grids : demand side modelling and analysis
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Information and communication technology has been identified as a
key enabler to develop a resilient, low carbon, and secure future energy
system, by creating a smart grid. Starting with the premise that
technology can be used to effectively match demand to generation, we
address three main questions; (i) can algorithms be used to coordinate
demand? (ii) can policy influence market driven demand side solutions?
and (iii) how does technology influence consumer behaviour?
We find that demand management algorithms are sensitive to assumptions
regarding consumer flexibility. Taking this into account, we develop
a novel method to simultaneously evaluate demand response
business cases within a regulatory context. We find that the value
proposition for providing demand response services is weak and thus
requires policy based incentives and support. The analysis of a smart
home project indicates that in home display devices have a half-life
of 17 weeks and this is not significantly affected by engagement campaigns.
Participating in community led workshops (based on energy
consumption) increases in home display device activity, however this
is a very short term effect. We also find evidence that in home display
devices are likely to be used after changes in energy consumption are
made by the householder and not prior to behaviour change. When
using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), energy saving groups
(low, medium, and high) were found to have different values of subjective
norm, perceived behaviour control, and intention. This is the first
study to objectively measure behaviour change (in terms of energy
saved and in home display usage) and compare it with self-reported
values of the TPB within a smart home context.
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