Title:
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Modelling flooding in the Niger Delta
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Research regarding anthropogenic effects on flood inundation and
morphological/landscape change in the River Niger is presented in this thesis.
Various anthropogenic effects are considered within the case study area. Effects
of dam construction were numerically modelled using Dynamic Harmonic
Regression (DHR) Model, Geographical Information System (GIS) and
Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River model (CAESAR).
CAESAR model was used to simulate different flood scenarios resulting from
environmental change (climate and anthropogenic land cover change) on the
River Niger.
Most pm1s of the Niger River Basin lack spatially distributed hydrological data
to facilitate efficient monitoring of anthropogenic effects on the river. The use
of parsimonious models such as Dynamic Harmonic Regression models which
require few spatially-distributed data are therefore suitable for simulating water
stages behaviour/response to anthropogenic effects, in this case, the Kainji and
Jebba Dam constructions. DHR routines were used to simulate the dynamics of
pre- and post-dam constmction water stages within the River Niger Basin in
Nigeria. The DHR model explicitly calculates the uncertainty in the estimated
cycles and trends and thereby ensures that the data are not over-interpreted.
Seasonal cycles and trend in water stage data across the Niger River Basin
within Nigeria before and after Kainji and Jebba dams construction were
captured using this model. It has robustly quantified a range of differences in
the water stage regimes after the dam construction especially at the immediate
downstream gauge station. These differences, however, dissipate further down
the downstream catchment towards the Niger Delta.
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