Title:
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Overlapping regression and forecasting : essays on economic cycles
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This thesis documents research and findings of three essays in the area of prediction
and forecast of economic cycles. Each essay in this thesis is dedicated to address one
particular aspect of the research. The thesis also contributes to the existing research by
providing additional empirical evidence on the predictability of the real economic
activity and recessions in the US.
The first essay (Chapter 2) focuses on the long horizon inference methods, and
examines the predictability of real GDP growth rate in the US using several well known
predictors. A battery of specifically designed inference methods are employed
in the analysis to address statistical complications introduced by overlapping long
horizon dependent variable. The recursive moving block Jack-knife method is used to
correct the biased estimated coefficients.
The second essay (Chapter 3) puts emphasize on the out-of-sample forecast evaluation
between nested and non-nested model. The forecast performances of various
forecasting models are evaluated against two naive benchmark models, namely the
random walk model and the autoregressive model. For the nested model, the
asymptotically valid critical values for the forecast evaluation are derived from
bootstrap simulations. The robustness of the test results are examined by Rossi and
Inoue (2011 )'s robustness tests.
The third essay (Chapter 4) utilizes the probit model to examine the predictability of
recessions in the US. We evaluate the predictive power of several non-linear
transformed predictors against that of the yield spread, and we also introduce a similar
approach as in Rossi and !noue (2011) to examine the average and peak forecast
ability of the predictors. The forecast performances of the predictors under various
model specifications are carefully investigated in this chapter as well
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