Title:
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Breaking the crisis circle : conflict management of international rivalries
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An apparent decrease in the incidence of international crises raises a number of questions
about what factors motivate actors to engage in fewer battles. Why do some international
crises escalate to war whilst others do not? Why are some international crises resolved after
the first incident whilst others recur through the years? Are states with a history of
involvement in crises more likely to experience further crises? Literature on serial crisis
behaviour suggests that actors learn from their experience and do not experience further
crises (Gartzke and Simon, 1999). However, there are other determinants that affect crisis
recurrence. Conflict management is considered to be one of the main determinants in settling
and resolving crises (Bercovitch, 1996,2006; Beardsley, 2011). This thesis contributes to the
literature by examining several tools of conflict management that affect crisis (non-)
recurrence, using both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Through joint membership, the
non-interventionist role of certain International Organizations (IOs) discourages member
states from getting involved in further crises. A case study examines non-interventionist
joint membership) and interventionist (mediation) roles of IOs. Formal and informal
mediation techniques used by 10s during conflict management processes are able to ease a
crisis and offer a long lasting peace. Lastly, this thesis examines alternatives to third party
intervention, by presenting an analysis of the actors and the techniques they employ in severe
international crises. Techniques that control and facilitate decisions lower the risk of crisis
recurrence. Results indicate that joint membership in IOs and a combination of mediation
techniques through 10s reduce crisis recurrence. Even though belligerents may attempt to
resolve a crisis through bilateral negotiations, third party involvement, in peaceful settlement
attempts, reduces the likelihood of crisis recurrence
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