Title:
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Development of a model to suppress piracy and other maritime crimes using scientific reasoning
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Maritime piracy has risen in the public awareness as attacks off the coast of Somalia
'.have significantly increased since 2007 and, more recently, in West Africa's Gulf of
Guinea. Commercially operated ships are at high risk of becoming piracy victims
unless robust security measures are taken to prevent such attacks. This thesis attempts
to provide a methodology that can be used by marine risk analysts in order
to advise a shipowner on the likelihood of a piracy attack against a particular ship
at a certain time and under certain environmental conditions. It was also envisaged
to make an assessment of the threats that such an attack leads to hijacking of the
ship.
Due to the highly complex environment a ship is operating in the likelihood of a
successful hijacking depends on many factors. These include wind and weather conditions,
ship characteristics such as freeboard and speed: the cargo that is being
carried, the presence of naval forces in the sea area as well as the security measures
taken by the crew. In the current difficult economic climate for ship operations,
with low freight rates and tonnage overcapacity for many cargoes, a shipowner is
reluctant to invest in unnecessary security measures. Especially the cost of a professional
private armed security team is a great expenditure that has to be well thought
through and based on a realistic and profound risk analysis in order to balance the
risk cost and benefits.
This thesis proposes a Bayesian Network model (BN-model) to deal with this multiattribute
decision analysis problem under high uncertainty and in such a complex
environment. The generic BN-model accommodates all relevant factors that COntribute
to a hijacking of a ship. Its appropriateness was tested. Given that some
BN-nodes are not based on reliable historical data and, fur t her, that it is difficult
to reflect the real-world problem using numerical values, domain experts were requested
to provide t heir assessment using linguistic terms. The experts' judgments
were processed and aggregated using an enhanced evidential reasoning approach.
The weights were determined for the attributes (BN-nodes) by applying the Analytical
Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the utility values of the evaluation grades
provided for calculating a single crisp number for the likelihood of an attack.
The final refinement of the piracy BN-model was achieved by running a MonteCarlo
simulation on the root nodes that had been previously improved through the
linguistic input from experts. The results of the simulation were then statistically
analysed, i.e. statistical tools were applied including a sensitivity analysis. Such
an assessment could be used in deciding which measure(s) are most appropriate to
mitigate the risk of a hijack for a ship while sailing through the piracy High Risk
Area while taking into account the budget constraints mentioned above.
This t thesis, comprising of six chapters, follows a step-by-step approach with the
aim of developing a commercially viable risk assessment product that, after refinement
and conversion into appropriate software, could be used by shipowners,
ship operators or charterers to assess the risk for a particular ship when transiting
pirate-infested areas using the Bayesian Probabilistic Network approach in conjunct
ion with an enhanced Evidential Reasoning methodology, the Analytical Hierarchy
Process and Monte-Carlo simulation as underlying methodologies.
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