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Title: A Monte Carlo study of integrated logistic support trade-off at early system design stage
Author: Chang, M.
Awarding Body: University of Cambridge
Current Institution: University of Cambridge
Date of Award: 2000
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In this thesis, we propose to use Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to assess maintenance down time (MDT), which cannot be assessed a priori by traditional MIL-STD-471 (or now MIL-HDBK-470), at the early design phase based on various maintainability and provisioning options. Also, by using MC, we can perform a more rigorous in-progress maintainability demonstration during the design reviews. By following the MC approach in the MDT assessment at the early design phase, we can study the cost item related to revenue loss a prior for a commercial system design. This thesis proposes the use of MC simulation to estimate the MDT and thus the downtime-orientated profit loss along with other LCC items at the early design phase. This extends the US military standards to provide an accurate overall picture of a commercial system life cycle aspect for both the manufacturer and the user in performing integrated logistic support design trade-off at the early design phase. In order to stress the importance of this cost item about profit loss and keep the original military LCC structure undisturbed, we append the profit loss to the LCC and make a new economic trade-off factor, the "life cycle revenue loss" (LCRL). This definition of LCRL is stressed from the point of view of the user's life time. With a simple three-module water-level-control system, we demonstrate how to use MC in logistic trade-off problems based on LCC and LCRL at the early design phase. Our research shows that LCRL is more sensitive than LCC in handling a commercial system with profit concerns. We also develop a MC inventory trade-off approach based on LCRL and show that we may use the LCRL to integrate the concerns of the manufacturer and the user.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available