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Title: Input-output analysis of Scottish forestry strategies
Author: Psaltopoulos, Demetrios
Awarding Body: University of Aberdeen
Current Institution: University of Aberdeen
Date of Award: 1995
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First, the thesis investigates the interrelationships between the forestry sector and other components of the rural economy, through the application of the Generation of Regional Input-Output Tables (GRIT) technique to the estimation of an input-output table for the rural areas of Scotland. This is followed by a forestry-centred multiplier analysis. Second, the thesis considers the implications of alternative forestry development scenarios in Scotland over the next several decades for land use, timber production and processing, agriculture, and rural employment. Six alternative afforestation scenarios ranging from 'no further planting' to 'accelerated expansion' are defined, including 'lowland' and 'green forestry', and a 'most-likely' scenario. This analysis is carried out through a simulation model which is built on a spreadsheet, and consists of base-period data and parameters, followed by successive projected decade blocks. Taking account of labour productivity trends in both forestry and agriculture, scenario-specific calculations produce future values of forest area, wood output, transfer of farmland, displaced agricultural employment, and forest employment created. A distinction is drawn between current (decade-specific) and accumulated (rotation-specific) forest jobs created on transferred agricultural land and existing forest areas. In this way, the future implications of different assumptions as to future forestry policy are produced. Finally, scenario-specific projections for the year 2050 concerning new planting area and total wood production are converted into gross input value estimates for the Forestry Planting and Harvesting sectors. Alternative assumptions which represent extremes of correspondence between the domestic Forestry and Wood Processing sectors yield new levels of gross national (Scottish) output. The adjustment of the national input-output tables is then followed by their regionalisation through the application of GRIT and the estimation of scenario-specific regional direct, indirect and induced output, income and employment effects.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available