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Title: The impact of peak oil on globalisation : an example of steel exports to the United States
Author: Moldenhauer, Jan
Awarding Body: University of Liverpool
Current Institution: University of Liverpool
Date of Award: 2013
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Despite the potential importance of the link between peak oil and the geography of world trade, so far remarkably little research has been conducted for that matter. Particularly, there is a gap in the literature regarding the impact of peak oil on international trade patterns at the industry level. The dissertation contributes to filling that gap. The study uses the VEC model approach to analyse the influence of peak oil on the geography of international trade, thereby using the example of steel exports to the United States between 1998 and 2008. The hypothesis tested is that peak oil, which involves high oil prices and rising international transport costs, leads to an increasing regionalisation of international trade flows at the cost of long-distance trade. Steel exports to the U.S. are analysed by steel export category, country and region. Steel exports per steel product category are analysed for 18 countries, total steel exports are analysed for 64 countries, and steel exports per region are analysed for 8 regions. The findings suggest that following an oil price shock, steel export volumes decrease for countries/regions geographically distant to the U.S. and increase for countries/regions geographically close to the U.S. The evidence also reveals the significant explanatory power oil prices have for steel exports to the United States and that price patterns play a role in the realignment process of international trade flows in the global steel industry. The findings are in line with economic trade theory with regard to the importance of the distance of trade and indicate that due to peak oil, trade globalisation, at least in the steel industry, may be at risk.
Supervisor: Pfaffenzeller, Stephan; Snowden, Simon Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
Keywords: HD Industries. Land use. Labor