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Title: Systemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseases
Author: Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa
ISNI:       0000 0004 2735 2719
Awarding Body: Cranfield University
Current Institution: Cranfield University
Date of Award: 2011
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Context and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.
Supervisor: Longhurst, P.; Pollard, Simon Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: Policy development ; Carcass disposal assessment ; Import risk assessment ; Low probability events ; Risk mitigation strategies