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Title: The impacts of oil price fluctuations on competitiveness and macroeconomic activity
Author: Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman
ISNI:       0000 0004 2720 9429
Awarding Body: Lancaster University
Current Institution: Lancaster University
Date of Award: 2010
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This thesis focuses on the relationships between oil prices fluctuations and trade-related variables. There are 6 chapters. The introductory chapter sets the scene while chapter 2 discusses the theory for economics of non-renewable resources. This is followed by three substantive chapters which focus on three different aspects of the thesis: the oil price-RCA relationship, the oil price-exchange rate relationship and the oil price-output growth relationship. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis. Chapter 3 quantifies the effects of oil price fluctuations on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 36 manufacturing commodities of 167 countries from 1990 to 2005. Using Zellner's (1962) seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) model, the chapter finds that oil price fluctuations negatively affect middle-income economies and net oil-exporting countries' RCA more than high-income economies and net oil-importing countries. Chapter 4 explores the long run effects of real oil price and real interest rate differential on real exchange rate for a monthly panel of 8 countries from 1980 to 2008. Using the mean group estimator, the chapter finds no statistically significant relationship between real oil price and real exchange rate for oil-importing and oil- exporting countries. However, when using the pooled mean group estimator, the chapter finds a positive and statistically significant impact of real oil price on real exchange rate for five net oil importing countries, implying that increase in oil price leads to real exchange rate depreciation . . Chapter 5 investigates the asymmetric effects of oil pnce shocks on real economic activities in Malaysia from 1991 to 2007. Using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regressive (V AR) method, mixed results are obtained. Evidence of a symmetric relationship between oil prices and economic activities is obtained from the impulse response function (IRFs). However, the variance decomposition analyses VAR suggest that oil prices have different impacts on economic activities when they increase than when they fall.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available