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Title: The environmental outcome of liberalising the power sector in Mexico : a system dynamics approach
Author: Fuentes, Rolando
ISNI:       0000 0004 2718 9018
Awarding Body: London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London)
Current Institution: London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London)
Date of Award: 2011
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The energy sector is both a significant contributor to the problem of climate change and a critical factor in efforts to tackle the problem. Yet trends towards de-regulation of this sector, while offering "conventional'' economic gains, may have unintended consequences for climate change. This thesis is a contribution to understanding the ramifications of electricity sector de-regulation options in Mexico. This is an interesting case because Mexico's motivation to implement electricity and energy market reforms is different from the motivations that drove other analogous reforms in developed countries. Although Mexico does not have legal requirements to reduce carbon emissions, this is an important matter since the country might be able to achieve efficient energy supplies and provide better carbon performance with the judicious implementation of electricity reform. To investigate these issues, this thesis develops a system dynamics model that is used as a tool to frame thinking about energy and environmental policy decision making in Mexico. System dynamics fs well suited to shed light on problems best characterised as "out-of-equilibrium," such as the liberalisation of electricity markets and climate change itself. With this model, we address the responses of the energy sector and e.g. carbon emissions to perturbations such as: different institutional arrangements arising from market liberalisation, oil policy decisions, and the creation of different institutional arrangements for environmental policy and regulation. We find that a full liberalisation scenario leads to higher carbon emissions as a consequence of an increase in coal capacity. However, all reform scenarios that we tested would achieve lower accumulations of carbon than would occur if the initial carbon emissions rate persisted throughout the simulation period. Carbon emissions are highly sensitive to the reform settings, specifically to the role adopted by the public utility CFE after liberalisation, and the technology restrictions imposed on private firms.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available