Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS: | https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.541094 |
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Title: | Stochastic epidemic models for emerging diseases incorporating household structure and contact tracing | ||||||
Author: | Knock, Edward Stuart |
ISNI:
0000 0004 2708 9594
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Awarding Body: | University of Nottingham | ||||||
Current Institution: | University of Nottingham | ||||||
Date of Award: | 2011 | ||||||
Availability of Full Text: |
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Abstract: | |||||||
In this thesis, three stochastic epidemic models for intervention for emerging diseases are considered. The models are variants of real-time, responsive intervention, based upon observing diagnosed cases and targeting intervention towards individuals they have infected or are likely to have infected, be they housemates or named contacts. These models are: (i) a local tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, wherein intervention (vaccination and/or isolation) is directed towards housemates of diagnosed individuals, (ii) a contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a homogeneously-mixing population, with isolation of traced contacts of a diagnosed individual, (iii) a local tracing and contact tracing model for a disease spreading amongst a community of households, with intervention directed towards housemates of both diagnosed and traced individuals. These are quantified by deriving threshold parameters that determine whether the disease will infect a few individuals or a sizeable proportion of the population, as well as probabilities for such events occurring.
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Supervisor: | Not available | Sponsor: | Not available | ||||
Qualification Name: | Thesis (Ph.D.) | Qualification Level: | Doctoral | ||||
EThOS ID: | uk.bl.ethos.541094 | DOI: | Not available | ||||
Keywords: | QA273 Probabilities | ||||||
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