Title:
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Quantitative fire risk assessment by combining deterministic fire models with automatic event tree analysis
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Risk assessment is an integral part of the decision making process within the built
environment especially with the adoption of performance-based regulations in place
of prescriptive-based regulations. This dissertation examines risk assessment methods,
identifying problems within the current methods available. Specifically, this
dissertation defines gaps in current quantitative risk assessment where there is a need
for event tree analysis, a component of quantitative risk assessment, to be improved.
The dissertation also examines agent-based modelling and some of its applications
across different industries. Agent based modelling has lead to a development of a
novel methodology to automate the process of producing event trees for fire risk
assessment. The fire risk methodology provides the risk curve for a set of scenarios by
developing a software package combining the use of a) deterministic models i.e. fire
zone models, b) probabilistic models i.e. Monte Carlo model, and c) an agent-based
model including uncertainty analysis.
The present fire risk methodology has been applied to two case studies. The first case
study involves the application of the methodology to assess the benefit of installing
two different options of fire safety systems in a warehouse. The second case study is
the application of the methodology to a two-storey dwelling house where its
flexibility and its ability to perform uncertainty analysis is further examined. These
applications of the methodology to the case studies show the methodology flexibility
to be applied within different fire risk assessment domains. Finally, recommendations
are made to further develop the methodology to include components such as structural
risk assessment module and evacuation assessment module.
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