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Title: Forecasting the use of new local railway stations and services using GIS
Author: Blainey, Simon Philip
ISNI:       0000 0004 2704 0862
Awarding Body: University of Southampton
Current Institution: University of Southampton
Date of Award: 2009
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The aim of this thesis is to develop an integrated methodology for investigating the potential for new local railway stations within a given area, with particular emphasis on the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Existing methods for assessing the case for constructing new local railway stations have often been found wanting, with the forecasts produced proving to be inaccurate. A review of previous work in this field has been undertaken and methodologies with the potential to enhance local rail demand models have been identified. Trip rate and trip end models have been developed which are capable of forecasting usage at new station sites anywhere in England and Wales. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) has been used to enhance the performance of these models and to account for local variations in the effects of explanatory variables on rail demand. Flow level models have been produced for stations in South-East Wales, with a range of model formulations tested. A survey of ultimate passenger trip origins and destinations was carried out in the same area, enabling the accuracy of theoretical station catchment definition methods to be tested. A GIS-based procedure for locating potential sites for new railway stations within a given area has been developed. This was combined with the results from the demand models and estimates of associated costs and benefits to give a synthesised appraisal procedure capable of assessing the case for constructing particular stations. This procedure was applied to 14 sites in South-East Wales and, along with trip end forecasts for 421 sites across the country, this indicated that there is almost certainly a positive case for constructing a significant number of new railway stations in the UK.
Supervisor: Preston, Jonathan Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available
Keywords: GB Physical geography ; TF Railroad engineering and operation