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Title: Analysis of land use changes in the Thames Gateway : the change-pattern approach
Author: Lawal, Olanrewaju M.
ISNI:       0000 0004 2700 8635
Awarding Body: University of East London
Current Institution: University of East London
Date of Award: 2009
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Land use models are valuable in helping land mangers and policy makers to assess changes and predict the impact of these changes in land use on the resource base. However, the incorporation of the relevant factors still presents a major challenge in modelling of land use. This research proposed and tested a new approach to land use change modelling which incorporates socio-economic and biophysical aspects of land use. The study made use of spatial morphological indices in combination with socio-economic factors to model dynamics of urban land use. This approach adopts neural network for the modelling operation while drawing socio-economic data from census survey to represent some of the human dimensions. Bio-physical and environmental information relevant for land use changes was represented in the model by the land use pattern attributes. In order to determine the appropriate set of input variables for the modelling tow methods of feature selections was employed - factor analysis and genetic algorithm. Inputs selected by both methods were tested extensively In different models and the model with the best selection performance was explored for the final land use modelling. This model explored the propensity for change across three different land use classes within the each landscape units across the study area. Overall, spatio-temporal analyses revealed the existence of constant exchange between ecological infrastructure and cultivated land across the study area. These two land use classes are found to going through two fragmentation phases. Furthermore, land use change analysis revealed that socio-economic variables such as means of transport to work and demographic characteristics are relevant identifying the direction of land use change in the study area. In addition to these variables, grain, connectivity, diversity related attributes of the landscape elements are also found to be important explanatory variables. ANN model result shows that two major change associations have the highest tendencies across the study area. They include decreases in cultivated and built-up lands coupled with increases in ecological infrastructures and decreases and/or little (or no) change in cultivated land and ecological infrastructures coupled with increases In built-up land. The results provide insight into the interaction between pattern of land use and socio-economic characteristics and the implication of these interactions for changes in land use.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available