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Title: Aviation Technology Targets and Climate Change
Author: Owen, Bethan
ISNI:       0000 0004 2694 9222
Awarding Body: The Manchester Metropolitan University
Current Institution: Manchester Metropolitan University
Date of Award: 2010
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In the absence of global reduction emission agreements for aviation, the aviation industry itself has been active in setting technology targets mainly with respect to new aircraft. Future aviation emission scenarios are developed in this thesis to investigate the likely mitigation potential on global aviation fleet emissions offered by such technology targets in the first half of this century. The climate impacts of future emission scenarios are then investigated. A baseline global aviation emissions inventory for the year 2000 has been constructed to provide the basis of the future emission scenario development. Specific technologyt argets are assessedin terms of their emission reduction potential in 2050 and with a further (less detailed) outlook to 2100. Global aviation demand forecasts have been developed. A review and analysis of technology trends to date and emerging technology is then used to develop and guide the range of future technology trends. A fleet rollover model has been developed to model the uptake of technology into the global fleet. Future reference scenarios define the basis of the comparison of the emission reduction potential of the technology targets and ultimately their potential to reduce the climate impacts of aviation. A simplified climate model has been used to calculate the relative contribution made to climate impacts by the aviation emission scenarios developed. The thesis provides a quantitative analysis of the technology targets both in terms of emissions from the global fleet and the climate impacts. Predicted growth in global aviation demand is likely to outstrip any technological improvements in the industry in the near to medium term. In a post-Kyoto policy context, where emission reductions from other sectors are required, growing aviation emissions will look increasingly out of step
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available