Title:
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Climate Change Mitigation & Geoengineering
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Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide
(C02) is the principle requirement for reducing global warming, its impacts, and the
degree of adaptation required. Here, the trade-offs between delaying mitigation action and
the strength of mitigation action required to meet particular atmospheric CO2 concentrations
are explored using a conceptual model of emission trajectories and a simple Earth
system model. The results show that avoiding dangerous climate change is more likely if
global mitigation action commences as soon as possible and that starting mitigation earlier
is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun, given
realistic limits of rates of decarbonisation. A detailed examination of the latest datasets on
CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and cement production show a significant
shift in the dominant drivers of global CO2 emissions, with a substantial growth in
emissions from coal since 2002, and coal surpassing oil as the main source of emissions
from fossil fuels in 2006. When compared to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) scenarios, recent emissions are shown to be higher than five of the six
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios, and the growth rate
in emissions for 2000 to 2007 are higher than the growth rates for the current decade, in
four of the six scenarios. If the post-2002 emissions continue, driven by a growth in coal
which is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel, then the task of mitigation becomes more
challenging, the importance of building adaptive capacity more pressing and calls into
question whether mitigation alone is sufficient to meet the aspiration of avoiding dangeriiious climate change.
Given the significant and widening gap between the current trajectory of CO2 emissions
and the trajectory that would provide the greatest probability of avoiding dangerous climate
change, there has been a resurgence of interest in geoengineering in recent years.
Climate geoengineering seeks to rectify the current radiative imbalance via either (1) reducing
incoming solar (shortwave) radiation or (2) removing CO2 from the atmosphere
and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation.
A critical review of the geoengineering literature shows that shortwave geoengineering
can rectify a global radiative imbalance but ocean acidification and residual regional climate
changes would still occur and the intervention could bring about unforeseen Earth
system responses that may in turn increase the radiative imbalance. Creation of CO2
sinks (longwave geoengineering) involves less risk than shortwave geoengineering, as it
acts upon the primary cause of the radiative imbalance and has a more limited capacity for
`failure'. Geoengineering does not provide a `solution' to anthropogenic climate change.
In order to meet the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCC), demonstrable and significant mitigation action must get under
way soon, with the creation of CO2 sinks a potential complement. The necesscity of
undertaking geoengineering will ultimately be dicated by the magnitude of climate interference
judged to be dangerous and the strength of mitigation agreed and adhered to by
the international community in Copenhagen in December 2009
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