Title:
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Multi-Factor Analytical Models of Re-Investment Under Uncertainty
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In this thesis, we formulate a quasi-analytical solution method for determining
the timing boundary for multi-factor real option models, and apply it to economic
problems of re-investment having a fixed re-investment cost. In the absence of an
eligible dimension reducing transformation, numerical solution methods are normally
used to evaluate the timing boundary, but analytical methods are elegant and less
onerous. We develop a quasi-analytical method for determining the timing boundary for
models whose factors are described by geometric or arithmetic Brownian motion
processes, which, because it is expressed as a solution to a set of simultaneous
equations, is implicit.
Fixed cost re-investment problems, with two or more factors, are a particularly
appropriate vehicle for demonstrating the appeal of the quasi-analytical method,
because of the complete absence of a dimension reducing transformation. We find that
the standard finding for one-factor models on the viability condition for investing in an
opportunity is extendable to the multi-factor models by showing that the net incremental
value rendered by the re-investment has to significantly exceed the net re-investment
cost for it to be economically justified. Although the various models are founded on an
infinite re-investment chain, we observe only finite chains for many industrial and
commercial assets, so a recurring theme of our studies is abandonment and the inclusion
of a suitable mechanism in the formulation for terminating the infinite process.
Three distinct classes of re-investment are considered. In Chapter 3, we study
the two-factor renewal model, with deteriorating stochastic revenue and operating cost.
We find that the correlation between the two factors exerts considerable control over the
shape of the timing boundary, which shows that focusing exclusively on one-factor
models and ignoring additional factors can produce misleading results. Further, the
timing boundary is more greatly influenced by the revenue reversionary level than by
the .operating cost reversionary level and the re-investment cost. We also consider the
magnitude of the reversionary revenue required to terminate the chain. In Chapter 4, we
study a replacement model with stochastic escalating cost and tax allowances due to the
depreciation charge, based on declining balance, straight line and sum of year's digits
schedules. Replacement depends on asset age, with younger assets being replaced at
lower operating cost thresholds. Further, asset age is critical in deciding the preferred
depreciation lifetime, tax rate and depreciation schedule. In Chapter 5, we study the
impact of salvage value on replacement. The presence of this additional factor not only
. lowers the operating cost threshold, but also permits the abandonment decision to be
modelled. In Chapter 6, we study a two-factor model for renovating a property, with
building quality deteriorating stochastically and a market-based rental price, which
expresses both renovation and abandonment opportunities. We show that the three
decisions of continuance, renovation and abandonment comprise an exhaustive decision
space.
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