Title:
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Characterising the variability and change of the North Atlantic storm-track
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The aim of this thesis is to identify recent inter-annual patterns of variability and long-
term changes in the North Atlantic storm-track using ERA-40 reanalysis data. These
results are also compared with variability in simulations by the newly developed Met
Office Hadley Centre global coupled-model HadGEMl.
The storm-track and storm activity is represented by both a variance and a feature-
tracking analysis. The former involves (2-6 day) bandpass filtering the wind fields u',v' to
calculate Transient Eddy Kinetic Energy. Feature-tracking involves
the identification of positive vorticity (ε) extrema from a background field. These methods are found to be complementary.
The analysis indicates that the leading inter-annual North Atlantic storm-track pattern
(PI) over the ERA-40 study period involves meridional shifts of the storm-track exit
region. This pattern is prominent in both the upper- and lower-troposphere and is found
to predominantly be associated with shifts in the typical paths taken by medium and
strong storms. PI appears to be unrelated to any key mean-flow teleconnection patterns
such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). PI is strongly associated with local mean-
flow changes to geopotential and temperature that support more intense storm activity,
which indicates that this pattern is self-maintaining. Two less important patterns are
identified in the TEKE teleconnection analysis which represent storm-track intensity in
the west (P2) and east (P3) mid-latitude North Atlantic.
There is clear evidence of a northward shift in medium and strong storm paths at
lower-levels in ERA-40, whilst in the upper-troposphere the strongest storms have not
shifted northwards, whilst medium storms have.
The HadGEMI storm-track was found to have large decadal variability comparing
two forty year periods, which in turn suggests that the ERA-40 results are perhaps just a
'snapshot' of North Atlantic storm-track behaviour. The inclusion of historic greenhouse
gas forcings does not influence storm-track variability greatly in comparison with the
internal variability of HadGEMl.
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