Title:
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River basin models for operational forecasting of flow in real-time
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This thesis examines the potential role of transfer function models in
the real-time forecasting of the rainfall-runoff and flow routing processes.
The theory of the transfer function model structure and the recursive
least-squares estimator is described. The use of a sampling rule to reduce
the order of large transfer function models is discussed. Traditional
sampling theories and control engineering sampling rules are examined. An
hydrological sampling rule is developed and tested, with the conclusion that
accurate and parsimonious transfer function models can be calibrated for
most of the hydrological systems considered in this thesis.
Accepted methods of flow routing and river-basin modelling are
introduced. Synthetic simulations of the flow routing process by transfer
function models are compared to linear and non-linear, hydrological and
hydraulic methods of flow routing. The transfer function model structure
adequately simulates simple and more complex synthetic systems which exhibit
tributary inflow, varying roughness parameters and out-of-bank flooding.
A sampled cascade model structure is developed as an alternative model
order reduction technique. Use is made of the Rosenbrock parameter
optimisation method.
The transfer function model structure is used to forecast flows in
three case studies. The first two applications concentrate on the ability
of transfer function models to approximate tributary inflows and the use of
a dual-model structure to simulate out-of-bank flooding. Finally, an
accurate and parsimonious river-basin model structure is proposed for the
real-time forecasting of flows in river catchments
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