Title:
|
Decision support systems for sustainable energy planning in a developing economy
|
This research proposes a "Dynamic Energy Systems" (DES) paradigm- a Decision Support Systems
Framework using a System Thinking (ST) and System Dynamics (SD) approach for sustainable
energy planning in a Developing Economy (DE) using developing Botswana economy as a case
reference. Many of the DE is currently undergoing dramatic changes in socio-economic policies
such liberalisation of the energy markets, financing of energy projects and the incorporation of
previously grounded externalities such as the environmental implications of energy projects.
The research begins by reviewing the literature on the underlying dynamics of sustainable energy
development (SED) in the DE. It further examines the inherent limitations of traditional planning
tools such as optimisation, econometric and general simulation models for energy planning and
policy formulation in DE. It argued that the advocated strength of optimisation tools is
significantly impaired in the DE where economic, social and environmental objectives are
multidimensional, complex and hence seldom given a clearer definition.
Traditional energy planning tools are inappropriate in DE as they focuses on the present decision
without identifying how past policies created the present complexities. This research also argued
that traditional modelling approach fail to demonstrate the policies that would guide future
decisions. Further, lack of reliable data and the absolute determination of the objective function
in many DE undermines the suitability of both econometric and optimisation models.
Given the inherent systems structure, current trends and future forecasts in the DE, there are
complex implications that need addressing in the applications of traditional planning tools to
sustainable energy planning. The unsuitability of traditional tools to DE is rooted in the welldocumented
socio-economic, political and technological differences, as compared to those of the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations.The past energy development trends witnessed in the OECD nations contradict the notion of
SED. It is therefore paramount that energy planners and their advisers in DE integrate these
complexities in the applications of traditional planning models. Hence, DE requires a new
paradigm for SED.
DES modelling and methodological approach facilitates the design of policy rules that govern
complex decision-making. It demonstrates how past policies created the current crises. The use of
DES enables the modelling of complex energy issues, and enhances understanding of the
dominant system characteristics that causes energy systems instability in the DE. This research
maintains that the major impediments to SED in the DE are appropriate technology; social
organisation; environmental (energy) resources and investment directions.
The proposed methodology focuses on analyses of the dynamic forces that impinge on energy
systems and seeks to improve the decision making process. This research fills an important gap in
the literature by demonstrating the merits of DES as a framework that permits focusing on the
holistic structure identifiable within an energy system in the DE. The research also identifies the
underlying differences of sustainable energy planning in DE as compared to those of the OECD
nations.
|