Title:
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Optimization approaches for process engineering problems under uncertainty
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Production systems typically involve significant uncertainty in their operation due to either
external or internal sources. The existence of uncertainty transforms conventional
deterministic process models to stochastic/parametric problems, the solution of which requires
the application of specialized optimization techniques.
The main objective of this thesis is to develop suitable algorithms and numerical
techniques for the efficient solution of process engineering problems involving uncertain parameters.
Based on modelling issues regarding uncertainty classification (deterministic and
stochastic uncertain parameters) and design objectives with respect to uncertainty (fixed
degree of flexibility and optimal degree of flexibility), a unified multiperiod/stochastic
two-stage optimization formulation is proposed and a decomposition based algorithmic
procedure is developed for its efficient solution. The proposed algorithm forms the basis
for addressing process design problems, planning and scheduling problems and problems
related to behavioural analysis under uncertainty.
For batch plant design problems involving uncertainty in the description of process
parameters such as transfer coefficients, kinetic constants, etc., as well as variability
of external parameters such as product demand, economic cost data etc., the exploitation
of the special structure coupled with the relaxation of feasibility requirement regarding
product demands enables the transformation of the stochastic two-stage programming
problems to a single optimization model where the structure of the deterministic problem
is fully preserved. For the case of continuous size of equipments, an efficient global
optimization procedure is proposed, whereas for the case of discrete equipment sizes the algorithm
reduces to the solution of a mixed integer linear programming problem. For short
term production planning and long-range planning problems including capacity expansion
options, the application of the proposed approach results in the optimal production plan
(i. e. process utilization levels, purchases and sales of materials) and/or an optimal capacity
expansion policy that maximize an expected profit and ensure an optimal level of future
feasibility.
Finally, an attempt to address the question of the future "value" of uncertainty
is presented based on the concept of value of perfect information. It is shown that the
proposed algorithmic developments can be effectively extended to include both the solution
of the here-and-now and the wait-and-see models in order to analyze and integrate the
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