Title:
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Some model-based approaches to measurement in social sciences
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Statistical models are often used as the defining basis of measurement in
social science. However, important issues such as uncertainty, model
criticism and the impact of model assumptions are often neglected. These
issues are explored in the context of three leading cases of model-based
measurement. The relative index of inequality (RII) is used to measure socioeconomic
inequality in health outcomes. A new definition of the RII is
introduced, in place of the standard formulation based on linear regression.
Non-linear outcome rates are accommodated, and estimation using cubic
splines fitted by maximum penalized likelihood is developed. The modeling
approach taken naturally handles standardizing variables such as age.
Bootstrap estimation of variability is pursued. Simulations and a real data
example demonstrate a reduction in bias, at the cost of some increase in
variance, when incidence rates are non-linear. Social mobility can be
measured using an index of mobility, which summarizes a mobility table in a
single number. A certain index, based on the supposition of an underlying
continuous-time Markov process, satisfies criteria set out in the literature. The
'embedding problem' is explored to assess when it is valid to apply this index.
A sufficient condition for the distribution of a likelihood ratio test statistic is
derived, and used to develop confidence intervals. In an example using
French data, the index is used to caution against the conclusions of the
popular UNIDIFF model. Electoral transitions between parties can be
measured via a transition table of votes. The aggregated compound
multinomial model for such a table appears rigid. Flexibility is introduced in
two ways: the log-linear dependence on covariates is relaxed to one involving
thin plate splines, and a new model with a general covariate structure is
introduced. However, little improvement is offered in the example of
describing the dependence of the 2005 British general election results on the
2001 results. This is illustrated using novel plots of residuals.
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