Title:
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Economic issues in the provision of antenatal screening for Down's syndrome
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This thesis exammes the economiC issues related to the prOVISIon of
antenatal screening for the genetic disorder commonly referred as
Down's syndrome (DS). DS is associated with a number of serious
medical consequences and an increased mortality rate. The offer of
screening for DS to pregnant women has been a feature of antenatal care
for over 30 years. In recent years an increasing number of screening
techniques have been developed based on biochemical testing and
ultrasound scanning. This thesis pays particular attention to three of these
tests, nuchal translucency screening (NT), the combined test (CT), and the
integrated test (IT). These three tests differ in terms of their efficacy in
detecting cases of DS and differ by the time point (trimester) in the
pregnancy that they can provide results to women.
The empirical studies presented here examine issues of cost-effectiveness
(for NT) and women's preferences (based on the characteristics of NT, CT,
and IT) using the methods of standard gamble, a discrete choice experiment
(DCE), and contingent valuation (based on willingness to pay). A
conceptual model (Figure 2.1) is provided to underpin the empirical
research that resulted from the review of key methodological issues
discussed and presented in Chapter2.
The cost-effectiveness analysis showed that once the issue of the
spontaneous abortion of fetuses with DS has been accounted for, NT
screening carried out in the first trimester of pregnancy may not detect
significantly more cases of DS than a second trimester screening test based
on biochemical testing alone. However, NT by definition does provide the
screening result earlier in the pregnancy; but using NT does bring about a
net increase in screening costs and produces a positive incremental costeffectiveness
ratio. It should be noted that cost estimates produced here do
not attempt to take into account any cost savings that may accrue to the
health care sector or to other sectors as result of preventing the live birth of
a child with DS. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (with results taking into account spontaneous abortion of DS fetuses) showed that at a societal
willingness to pay of £30 000 per DS case prevented there was only a 46%
probability ofNT screening being cost-effective.
The cost-effectiveness analysis of NT screening was complemented by a
standard gamble survey in which women were asked to value DS screening
scenarios based on various screening outcomes. The aim was to see if
women placed more value on screening results presented earlier in the
pregnancy (i.e. in the first trimester of pregnancy as opposed to the second
trimester). The results found that women did not value earlier screening
results more highly than later ones. This result held both for scenarios that
featured negative screening results, i.e. a result showing that a pregnancy
was not affected by DS, or positive screening results i.e. a result showing
that a pregnancy was affected by DS followed by a termination of
pregnancy.
In very recent times in the UK the use of the CT or the IT has been strongly
championed by various advocates. In essence they differ in that the CT
offers first trimester results and the IT offers second trimester results.
Empirical evidence also suggests they differ by efficacy in terms of the DS
detection rates they achieve and by the number of false-positive screening
results that occur. To gain more understanding of women's preferences
with regard to the different attributes of these screening tests a DCE was
undertaken. The results of this showed that women were more likely to
choose a screening option that had high detection and low false-positive
rates, that women preferred (when necessary) that the termination of an
affected pregnancy was done using a medical termination, but that the
timing of the test (as defined by week of pregnancy) was not statistically
significant in the regression model.
The sample of women that completed the DCE was given full descriptions
of the CT and the IT and was asked to state a straight preference of one of
the tests over the other. In addition they were also asked to state their
maximum willingness to pay in order to guarantee their choice of screening test. The binary choice question (of CT or IT) showed an almost exact
salsa split in choosing the CT or the IT. This result is not consistent with
the findings described above that suggested that the timing of the test was
not important but that test performance was important. In the description
given to women the IT was shown to have a better detection rate than the
CT and was no worse in terms of false-positive results. If women's
preferences were driven by test performance and not by timing then the
logical choice would be the IT.
The empirical results presented shed new light on the key trade-offs that are
involved when choosing amongst screening methods and it was
demonstrated that the results from the various evaluative approaches used
here do not always lead to the same conclusions. What the results did show
is that the sole provision of anyone screening programme would not
necessarily match the choices that women would make and that different
groups of women (for example by age) may make different screening
choices. This conclusion challenges the recently issued NICE clinical
guidance on antenatal care that instructs providers of screening for DS in
England and Wales to routinely use the CT in the first trimester of
pregnancy. This highlights the gap between aspirations to use a wider
evaluative approach by ascertaining and acting on the preferences of
individual pregnant women and the imperative to use health care resources
efficiently.
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