Title:
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Hybrid Modelling of a Polyethylene Process to Predict Polymer End-Use Properties
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This thesis presents a novel method for predicting polymer end-use properties using
information from a molecular weight distribution (MWD) predicted using a hybrid
modelling strategy.
A mechanistic model of a dual reactor, polyethylene process has been developed to
predict process information required to calculate the MWD. Process data available
includes MWDs, reactor inputs and end-use properties of the polymer. The reaction
kinetics fitted to the process are commercially sensitive and unavailable for
modelling purposes, therefore, kinetics representative of a typical polyethylene
process have been used within the model. The accuracy of predictions made by the
mechanistic model is insufficient to meet the requirements of the industry. However,
this thesis demonstrates that a hybrid modelling strategy, combining the mechanistic
model with a non-linear empirical layer to adjust key descriptors of the molecular
weight distribution, improves the prediction accuracy. It is also shown that a nonlinear
empirical approach can be used to predict important polymer end-use
properties from key sections of the MWD identified as having a strong influence on
those properties.
This contribution combines these two findings to make predictions of end-use
properties directly from the hybrid modelled MWD rather than the MWD measured
off-line using gel permeation chromatography. This enables predictions of both
MWD and end-use properties to be made on-line and potentially incorporated into a
model predictive control strategy.
The results show that small differences between the hybrid MWD and the actual
MWD prohibit consistent prediction of end-use properties, with only the best
observations making accurate predictions. However, the predictions of end-use
properties are of an accuracy comparable to black box models of the process. The
incorporation of process knowledge and understanding within the mechanistic layer
of the hybrid model also adds to the credibility of the predictions.
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