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Title: Spatial and temporal modelling of human campylobacteriosis in Scotland
Author: Miller, Gordon
ISNI:       0000 0001 3401 3035
Awarding Body: University of Aberdeen
Current Institution: University of Aberdeen
Date of Award: 2009
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Campylobacterjejuni infections are the largest recognisedcause ofbactenal gastroenteritis in the developed world. However, much of the epidemiology of these infections remains unclear. In this study, spatial and temporal modeling techniques are applied to various data sets ofreported human campylobacteriosis cases in Scotland in order to elucidate the aetiology of these infections. Time series analysis techniques are used to construct seasonal models of the national and regional incidence rates (by NHS Health Board). These are used to identify seasonal patterns, regional variation, and uncommon bursts ofinfection, as well as to predict future incidence trends. Significant regional differences are found in the annual incidence rates and seasonal patterns, particularly between Scotland's two largest population centres, Greater Glasgow and Lothian. Spatial mapping techniques ar?-,used to analyse incidence rates, stratified by age groups, at a subregional level for Grampian, Scotland. High incidence rates are identified in young children, particularly in rural areas. Regression analysis ofincidence rates against densities of farm animals, which excrete large numbers ofthe bacteria into the environment, demonstrate high correlations between young children and densities of cattle, sheep and pigs, indicating that environmental exposure may be a more significant risk than previously recognised. A large dataset ofserotyped human isolates in Grampian are studied to identify the variations in the types found between age groups in both urban and rural regions. The more common serotypes are found to be less evident in the older age groups, which could suggest a developed immunity to certain types with age. Further, variation is identified in the seasonality ofserotypes in young children between urban and rural regions, indicating . . further influence of environmental infection pathways. The Use of the spatial and temporal modeling techniques in this thesis develops the . epidemological understanding of C. jejuni infection, as well as indicating areas for future research.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available