Use this URL to cite or link to this record in EThOS: | https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.486700 |
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Title: | Improving Dst index prediction using Kalman filtering techniques | ||||
Author: | Kaewkham-ai, Boonsri |
ISNI:
0000 0001 3593 8419
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Awarding Body: | University of Sheffield | ||||
Current Institution: | University of Sheffield | ||||
Date of Award: | 2007 | ||||
Availability of Full Text: |
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Abstract: | |||||
Over the past few decades, short term Dst index prediction using different techniques have been proposed since effects of space weather cause many
problems on operational systems on Earth. Using input-output methods,
the coupling function between solar wind parameters and Dst index is found
to be nonlinear. In practice, observed data have been provided in almost real
time but this is very noisy. To address noisy data and nonlinear dynamics,
Kalman filtering techniques are used. Furthermore, the measurement noise
which is derived from the error between provisional Dst and quick look Dst is
found to be non white and modelled using an ARMA structure. Four existing
models are chosen and a new model using NARX structure is proposed.
Parameter estimation using joint and dual estimation techniques is studied.
A comparison between models with Kalman filtering techniques and models
alone is made and it is found that Kalman filtering methods can improve
prediction performance and reduce prediction error.
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Supervisor: | Not available | Sponsor: | Not available | ||
Qualification Name: | Thesis (Ph.D.) | Qualification Level: | Doctoral | ||
EThOS ID: | uk.bl.ethos.486700 | DOI: | Not available | ||
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