Title:
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Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in the U.K.
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'The purpose of this study is to examine which instrument
or set of instruments of monetary policy is optimal in the
case of the U. K. economy. A model of the U. K. economy is
developed that includes both the. 'real' sector and the
'monetary' sector. The emphasis is on the correct specification
and estimation of the structural equations; we, thus,
estimate this model with the help of three econometric techniques:
ordinary least squares, two-stage least squares, and
full information maximum likelihood. The stability of the
parameters of the estimated relationships is tested, and
also the stability of these relationships for prediction.
Forecasts for a post sample period of one quarter is obtained
practically in all cases, as well as forecasts of twelve
quarters in one case. These forecasts are based on actual
rather than forecasted values of the exogenous or predetermined
variables.
The dynamic aspects of the model are carefully examined,
and dynamic multipliers are derived. It is on these dynamic
multipliers that our conclusions on the question of optimal
monetary policy in the U. K. are based. This analysis suggests
that an interest rate policy aiming at controlling the
treasury bill rate, and through this rate the long-term bond
rate, is the optimal policy; however, the money stock has a
role to play too. The latter can be manipulated in such a
way to help the monetary authorities to achieve the target
interest rate.
Finally, some light is thrown on the question as to
whether the setting of the instruments of monetary policy
by the authorities is affected by the rest of the economic
system. Clearly, if the answer to this question is positive
then what is required is join estimation of the relationships
that explain the setting of. the instruments with the rest of
the basic model. Our conclusion is that we find no strong. -
reasons for joint estimation. This analysis focuses also on
the supply side of these assets, a problem that has been neglected by the literature on the monetary problems of the
U. K. economy as well as elsewhere.
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