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Title: Evaluation of investment in the Libyan upstream oil sector
Author: Otman, Waniss A.
ISNI:       0000 0001 3461 0489
Awarding Body: University of Aberdeen
Current Institution: University of Aberdeen
Date of Award: 2006
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In this study the author has critically examined the major factors which have determined investment in the Libyan upstream oil sector from its beginnings in the mid-1950s to the present. The researcher has shown that risk perceptions underlying investment decisions by the International Oil Companies (IOCs) in the Libyan sedimentary basins were effectively determined by their early experience and concentration on the development of oilfields and infrastructure in the Sirte basin, where the original giant discoveries were made. This meant upstream investment in the other Libyan basins such as Murzuq and Gadames, as well as the offshore basins, was severely constrained. The author has also shown the erratic and uneven development of Libyan fiscal legalisation for the upstream sector, starting with the milestone Petroleum Law N.25 of 1955 which instituted the concession system. The Libyan JVAs of the late 1960s, the nationalisation / Participation Agreements of the early 1970’s and the emergence of the extremely hostile terms of the initial Libyan Exploration and Production Agreements (EPSA I, 1974 and EPSA II, 1980) all negatively impacted Libya’s risk profile. The political fallout from the US and UN sanctions of 1986 and 1989 also meant that the EPSA III contractual terms of 1989, failed to attract the level of investment their intrinsic advantages justified. After investigating and analysing a wide range of investment risk analysis tools in the pivotal research part of the study, the author opted to utilise Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to critically evaluate the risks and rewards of the current Libyan EPSA IV with respect to both the Libyan government and the IOCs. The researcher did this by MCS modelling of three actual conventional Libyan oilfields, with high medium and small reserves, as well as three marginal fields. The author has concluded that MCS represents a valuable and versatile tool for analysing contractual risk in developing already discovered but underdeveloped Libyan oil fields.
Supervisor: Not available Sponsor: Not available
Qualification Name: Thesis (Ph.D.) Qualification Level: Doctoral
EThOS ID:  DOI: Not available