Title:
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Parsimonious modelling the rainfall-runoff behaviour of large catchments in Thailand
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There is currently great concern in Thailand about the effects of land-use and climate
change on the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the great rivers in Thailand. At the same
time, hydrologists are becoming increasingly worried about uncertainties in the
forecasts of physics-based models - due to the complexity of their structures and
inappropriateness of the catchment characteristics incorporated. These concerns
become particularly acute when such models are applied to large river catchments
(100 - 10,000 km2) - the scales needed to link hydrological research with land-use
management and planning.Within this thesis, the value of using parsimonious models
(i. e., structurally very simple with few parameters but a high simulation efficiency),
Normally restricted to engineering applications, is addressed. The particular modelling
techniques used form part of new suite of tools known as Data-Based-Mechanistic
(DBM) modelling. Three very large catchments, one in northern Thailand, one in the
centre and one in the south were the focus for the study and each contained one or
more smaller catchments.
The results of the DBM modelling showed that much of the rainfall-runoff dynamics
of these large catchments could be modelled with very simple (3 or 4-parameter)
models and that these parameters were related to the catchment size, hydrogeology
and climatic regime. The role of the climate was shown with the DBM tool known as
the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) model. These new methods were
complemented by traditional hydrological engineering analyses, which supported the
findings of the DBM. Indeed, these traditional techniques clearly showed the effect of
rapid and extensive urbanisation on catchment hydrology. In an attempt to show how
such parsimonious methods might be extended to incorporate additional information,
where it can be justified, catchment topographic analyses were compared with
measured catchment moisture measurements. The poor performance of the
topographic model evaluated did, however, mean that further validation work needs to
be undertaken before this particular topographic model should be applied (without
similar testing) throughout Thailand.
Given the greater use of physics-based models of catchment systems in Thailand, this
work demonstrates that parsimonious statistical approaches remain of great value to
the interpretation of hydrological processes operating within large Thai catchments,
and indeed to the identification of changes in these processes with land-use and
climate change.
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