Title:
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Portfolio credit risk through time : measurement methodologies
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The estimation of the profit and loss distribution of loan portfolios requires
the modelling of the marginal and multivariate distributions that describe the
individual and joint credit risk of the loans making up a portfolio. Unfortunately,
portfolio credit risk measurement suffers from extremely restricted
datasets. For many countries, this problem holds at any point in time and
through time. It is especially severe when modelling the credit risk of loans
given to small and medium size enterprises (SME's) and non-listed firms, which
are the focus of my research. Earlier attempts to deal with this problem have
resulted in measurement methodologies adopting convenient, but not necessarily
properly specified, parametric distributions or simply ignoring the effects of
macroeconomic developments in credit risk. In order to improve the measurement
of portfolio credit risk at any point in time and through time, I propose
new methodologies, i. e. the consistent information density optimising (CIDO),
the consistent information multivariate density optimising (CIMDO), and the
conditional probability of default (CoPoD) methodologies. CIDO and CIMDO
are based on the cross-entropy approach. They recover the marginal and multivariate
distributions of the loans that make up a portfolio from the limited
information available. Using the Probability Integral Transformation and the
Probability Squared Deviations criteria, it is proved that the distributions recovered
by CIDO and CIMDO outperform parametric distributions. CoPoD is
based on the pure-entropy approach. It allows for the modelling of the probabilities
of loan default (PoD's) as functions of macroeconomic variables. The
latter represents a challenging task, since the time series of PoD's usually contain
few observations; thus making OLS estimation imprecise. CoPoD recovers
estimators that show superior robustness to OLS estimators in finite sample
settings under the mean square error criterion. CoPoD also incorporates a
procedure to select a relevant set of explanatory variables that explain PoD's
through time.
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