Title:
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Modern approaches to the preliminary costing of process vessels
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Cost estimation is an expensive and time consuming element of a company's tendering
process. The purpose of this study is to reduce the time, and consequently the cost, required
to estimate the price of chemical process vessels from the current days or weeks to minutes
or seconds.
Traditional cost estimation involves calculating the amount ofinetal required, the numberof
metres ofwelding, the manhours involved, and soon. Here, more recent methods are explored,
involving the relationship between a vessel's overall specification and its price. Hence, a
database of costed vessels can be used to find the cost ofproposed new vessels by examining
these relationships and applying not only hard and fast mathematical rules, but also more
intuitive links.
Regression analysis is used to establish a base line by which to judge recent techniques such
as neural networks, fuzzy matching, rational polynomials and non-linear functions. Each of
the methods is applied to a set ofindustrial data, raising the supplementary 'real world' issue
covered here - the constraint of having only a relatively small data set. This in turn leads to
the exploration ofprincipal component analysis in order to reduce the number ofparameters
required.
The resultss howt hatt hem odernm ethodsp, articularly (simple)n euraln etworksa ndr ational
equationsh avemuchtoo ffer,w hilstbeingq uick ande asytoi mplement,t heyg enerallyproduce
results within the range expected of initial estimates.
Some of the techniques described are currently being used by the industrial sponsor on an
experimental basis and could also be applied to other areas where a cost database exists
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