Title:
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Tender price modelling : artificial neural networks and regression techniques
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Cost modelling in construction is the art and science of developing a reliable and
effective estimation of the tender price of a project. Cost estimation is an experiencebased
task, which involves evaluations of unknown circumstances and complex
relationships of cost-influencing factors. Researchers argue that cost model
developments lack rigour and consistent conceptual framework within which the
performance of different models may be compared and evaluated.
This study analyses construction cost models by classifying them into three groups
according to the techniques used. These include deterministic models (regression
analysis); probabilistic models (Monte Carlo simulation); and artificial intelligence
models (neural networks). This research investigates the development of two
methodologies for tender price estimation of buildings utilising neural computing and
regression techniques. The emphasis is to provide clients and practitioners with a
reliable tool, which would offer trustworthy advice and prediction of tender prices at
an early stage of a construction project. The analysis in this research is based upon a
data set of 230 office projects, newly constructed in the UK between 1983 and 1997.
The cost data of these buildings consists of tender prices and 13 other cost influencing
factors. The data extracted using the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS)
database of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Questionnaire
survey and interviews were adopted to identify, evaluate and rank cost significant
factors according to their degree of influence on tender prices. The practitioners
involved in this stage were UK based quantity surveyors. Some of these cost variables
formulate the basis for developing the tender estimation models.
Cluster analysis was conducted to categorise the data set into more homogeneous
project groups based upon the cost variables. The hypothesis is that developing
estimation models using project categories would yield better performance and more
efficient models. Self-Organising Maps (SOM), a type of neural networks, is used for
the cluster analysis. Seventeen neural networks and thirteen regression models are
developed for tender price estimation using different parameters and cost factors. The
performance and efficiency of these models are analysed and compared before and
after the cluster analysis of the data set. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis is
conducted by developing fifty-five models to evaluate the effectiveness of different
combinationso f network parameterso n the accuracyo f tenderp rice estimation.
The research findings indicate that, when the whole data set of 230 office projects is
used, both methodologies produced low accuracy and failed to map the relationship
between the tender price and the selected influencing cost factors. On the contrary,
after clustering the data set into coherent groups using Kohonen neural networks, the
performance of both RA and ANN models increased dramatically, with many
estimation accuracies above 80% and 90%, which is highly satisfactory for tender
price estimation at an early stage of a project. The outcomes imply that: (a) clustering
the projects into homogeneous categories is significant and key for model
performance and accuracy; (b) after cluster analysis there is no significant difference
in the performance of RA and ANN models, although the RA outperformed the ANN
in some models. The results also reveal that for both methodologies the accuracy of
the estimation models that utilised two cost factors (project area and duration)
outperformed the estimation models that used 13 cost factors, which is an indication
that area and duration are the most dominant cost determinant variables.
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